One of the trend indicators the most reliable global industrial conditions and in detail, the evolution of demand for natural resources, more is the index of marine cargo of dry foodstuffs, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). In only a month, freight rates have melted more than 42, returning to their levels of index of August 2008. Worse, the fall is a disarmingly linearity: yesterday, the BDI has ceded the land and this for consecutive 24eséance! It decreases the longest continuous series since August 2005.
Correction affecting marine cargo of dry foodstuffs is also no common measure with the prices of raw materials. Including those which are the core of its activity: iron ore, coal and grain. A 139 dollars per tonne on average according to "the steel Index", the spot of the raw material prices charged steel today in Chinese commercial ports are "only" 25 below their peak of 186.5 dollars from April 21. On coal, thermal quality prices remain high.
Risk on demand
The main grain transported by sea, the wheat, saw the course of three months of his contract negotiated in Chicago withdraw a relatively modest 12 a month. Finally, the movement of freight rates is of any other nature than those of the two General indices of prices for raw materials more followed by: S & P GSCI and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB. One eroded 1.4 on the month. The other was almost equal game since the end of may (0.3). This pair of indicators made rear machine of 6.5 in the quarter, while registering their worst performance since the last quarter of 2008, when the markets were still under the shock of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
At first glance, therefore, the outlines of the industrial activity of the last months of the year that the BDI lists currently is hardly encouraging and style with much less alarming indications that come from different raw materials markets.
A first reason of correction, as well of freight rates as prices of natural resources, is the emergence of risk on demand for commodities, notably in China. At this time, several market economists lowered their estimates of Chinese growth because including the screws turn given credit by the monetary authorities of the country. In particular, experts are susceptible to threats of reduction in steel production, whose influence on the purchases of coking coal and iron ore is enormous. But the collapse of freight rates is not only the consequence of the advance of the pessimism on the path of the application of materials for the industry. He is also a reflection of the sector of maritime transport causes. "The offer of vessels is growing at a rate higher than expectations", alerting the specialists in Credit Switzerland. In the first half, the world fleet of freighters increased by 14.4 in annualized. A percentage of record. In 2010-2011, these analysts expect growth of the supply of these ships in 9 to 10. About two times more than the anticipated demand of this category of cargo. Which leaves no hope for a quick recovery in the price of the transoceanic transport.
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