Such a commitment cannot therefore be firm

A threshold that some analysts are 90 of the GDP, the debt of State appears out of the area of control of public authorities and lead early or default later. Crisis today the Greece, whose total liabilities amounted to about 130 of GDP, has no other origin.

The France displays this year a debt of more than 83 and should cross the fateful threshold of 90 between 2012 and 2013. Is it so threatened Rates, which enjoys our sovereign paper, remain reasonable, close to the German rate. But the calm is misleading and prelude to an inflation probably violate. The rise in domestic financing needs, added to tensions on the bond markets, will invariably weigh on our public debt, which the only cost of service should be established in 2010 to 42.5 billion euros - is about 20 of net revenues for the year 2009. It would be pointless to believe in a very hypothetical "French exception." Obviously, must be done.

The Government must therefore reassure creditors and taxpayers by reducing the liability of the State. But incur a debt policy implies to reduce spending and to withdraw all support from a private sector still convalescent. In these circumstances, the French economy could not continue its recovery.

Establish the credibility of government markets, while now high expenses, falls within the quadrature of the circle. Only the promise of a quick return to the equilibrium can operate this synthesis of opposites. This is the path chosen by the Germany, which as of Summer 2009 has taken the decision to Cap its deficits (Federal and regional, to 0.35 and 0 respectively). This is the path that will probably choose the France which, on the conclusions of the Camdessus commission, will soon study the possible adoption of a "golden rule" budget.

If the contours of this instrument remain to be defined, its main characteristic is known: the final abandonment, from a given date, any structural deficit. Its effectiveness will however depend on its implementation. Ably introduced, it will facilitate remediation of public accounts and the return of confidence; botched, it will fuel uncertainty and lead to disaster.

To be effective, a promise must convince, be firm and credible because binding and measured. The favourite rule - is therefore to balance the French primary balance under five to ten years - does unfortunately neither of these conditions.

Elle, elle would not really binding. An obligation of result not accompanied by an obligation of means rests all entire on the given word. But the current administration, establishing this "golden rule", less undertake its own responsibility than that of the Government in power in 2016 or 2020.

Secondly, subject to a deadline as brief, this rule is would be not measured: a structurally loss-making State for more than thirty years will not reform in a few months. Especially in the middle of an expensive recovery effort.

Non-binding and too severe, it would therefore be neither credible nor firm. To restore the structural balance of public accounts in a few years, an increase in the tax burden is, sooner or later, inevitable. Harbinger of a "turn of rigour", the "golden rule" would all ills in advance - increase in domestic savings, decline in consumption, shortness of breath of growth and employment - without bring benefits. In the end, it would be more harmful than an immediate increase in tax rates: its scrupulous respect, therefore, is not credible.

Such a commitment cannot, therefore, be firm. A "golden rule" to the incantatory arithmetic would budget orthodoxy a religion and the accounting discipline a pure Act of faith. The Gospel of the rigour miraculously would allow the State to pursue the current widening of the deficit without damage, but would make it an offence to more and more certain rule. This Word could be that boast, promptly repudiated or circumvented by set of entries. In all cases, the confidence of the markets to suffer the first, accelerating the rise of the sovereign rate and precipitating the France in the turmoil.

Halt the skid of our finances is now urgent, but growth remains necessary. Only the prospect of a reduction in next deficits will manage to reconcile these two objectives. The introduction of a "golden rule" untenable would result in contrast of serious risks. Brazen Act, if it is respected to the letter, scarecrow accounting if it is violated, this rule would be likely to stifle growth and undermine the credibility of the State.

The solution A sheet of clear tax road and without artifice, detailing the terms of a financial recovery year after year, remains the strongest and the most compelling instrument. Its formulation is otherwise more delicate than the one promise of better days. But a "golden rule" budget low binding and too strict would provide to the France only a brief respite: the comfortable illusion of a "impossible and some triumph."