The CAC 40 index closed on a progression of 0

Stock markets themselves are offered a measured rebound yesterday, pending better, if upcoming statistics allow. In Europe, the main stock markets gains were understood 0.1 (Frankfurt)-1.26 (Madrid). The CAC 40 index closed on a progression of 0.77, to 3.553,23 points. In the morning, the announcement of a modest downturn in 56.1 points in August, compared to 56.7 points the previous month, the composite index of Directors of purchases (PMI) in the euro area are disturbed not squares of the old Continent, which keep in memory - and perhaps tend to extrapolate - very good recent German second-quarter growth figures. The strongest decline that expected this index of purchasing managers testify all and "the recovery could well begin to slow down," said the company Markit. This decline was also caused by "the manufacturing industry, particularly in Germany, which suggests that the weakness in global demand could stop the resumption of exports as it the craign was."

Across the Atlantic, the second estimate of us GDP in the second quarter will give an indication, at the weekend, on support by the United States to world growth. However consensus anticipates a net decline of the GDP growth on an annual basis, from 3.7 to 1.4 (revised figure) of one quarter to another: contraction that evokes more a reversal of the trend as a simple shortness of recovery.

What do think the NYSE, irresolute throughout the session before finish down and delight fans of T-bonds (U.S. Government bonds). They remained stable, with a performance of 2.60 American title in 10 years. Since last April, this performance has fallen by nearly 145 basis points, what amounts to a performance annualized from 38 in only four and a half months, according to calculations by JP Morgan AM.

Secret intervention

In the Japan, the Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, and the Governor of the Bank of the Japan (BoJ) met to discuss political currency and exchange rates in economic environment remains much depressed. A meeting which had aroused rumors and expectations the more various. Well, they discussed recent movements on the currency, they did not address the question of an intervention on the foreign exchange market, ensured the spokesman for the Government at the end of a press conference.

Markets did not believed. According to them, discuss foreign exchange without referring to the high cost of the yen and the means to combat it is simply absurd, and this as the BoJ is historically one of the most active central banks on currencies. In addition, it is in the interest of the BoJ to cast doubt on its interventions and to keep them secret. Failing these, the credibility of the BoJ would not affected.

Moreover, in 2003 and 2004, in 8 out of 10 cases, interventions by the BoJ on the Exchange were not public at the time where they were implemented. A study (1) for the period 1991-2004 shows that interventions by the BoJ to move the yen against the dollar in the desired direction and reduce the volatility of this parity have been effective when these initiatives were not detected by the market. This is rare, because the 125 days where she wanted to intervene in any discretion on the dollaryen report, it is able to stay in the shade in only 31 of cases. When the market bruisse of recurring rumours about a possible intervention by Japanese monetary authorities, it proves unable to influence the course of its currency in the desired direction. It comes in contrast to its purposes when it combines unnoticed actions and oral statements, which have escalated since some time. Which may suggest that it is already agreement to sell its currency. Yesterday, the yen has appreciated by 0.59 against the greenback, with a dollar at 85,18 yen, against 85,68 Friday.