None of its competitors has more cards in hand

In the coming months, the leaders Airbus and Boeing will have a particularly difficult decision: to launch or not to the middle of the next decade a new version remotorisée of their respective bestsellers, the A320 and B737, likely to provide between 10 and 15 savings, pending the launch of a new generation of aircraft airliners to 2020-2025. If it was, no doubt that the two avi on coaching would prefer to continue to sell their existing models. Between late and the crisis in air transport, none wants to incurring additional investment. But decide them more fully. For the first time since the disappearance of McDonnell Douglas in 1997, the two aircraft manufacturers may be forced to act under the pressure of one or more new competitors.

So far, few other manufacturers of airliners - the Brazilian Embraer, the Canadian Bombardier and Chinese newcomers (Avic), Russian (Sukhoï) and Japan (Mitsubishi) - limited to regional aircraft and had little influence on the strategy of the two giants of Toulouse and Seattle. Even the Chinese decision to enrol in the objectives of the 11eplan five-year (2006-2010) the launch of a medium-haul more of 150 places had not appeared to touch the leaders Airbus and Boeing. Not that they have underestimated China's capability. Makers of Airbus and Boeing are still was convinced that their duopoly would not last. But they nevertheless considered that this new competition would a good ten years to settle. What leave them time to prepare solid successors for the A320 and B737, able to provide non-not 15, but 25 savings. Sure of its technological advance, Airbus decided even to help the Chinese, by installing Tianjin first string Assembly A320 outside Europe, in large open doors of a fabulous market.

This analysis has not changed and remains probably valid. But, at the time where it was formulated, Airbus and Boeing were considering even launch the successors of the A320 and B737 between 2015 and 2020. Be early enough to cut the grass under the foot of new entrants. However, since then, taunts of new programs and the crisis in air transport have turned the. In the speech of Airbus, the entry into service of a new medium-haul is now extended to 2024. In the meantime, everything must be done to make the commercial success of the A320, by providing, if necessary, a few improvements, such as the installation of ailerons on the wings ("Les Echos" from November 16, 2009). Same thing in Boeing, which has already applied numerous textbook to its B737.

Unfortunately, these textbook may prove to be insufficient to completely new equipment, combining the performance of the new engines with more modern aerostructures. By delaying the replacement of their single-aisle aircraft, Airbus and Boeing have opened a window through which their challengers are trying to enter. The first to come out of the wood is Bombardier, with its Cseries. Announced for a standard capacity of 130 seats, it could make the shadow to the A318, the smallest in the Airbus, as early as 2013. Sukhoï, with its new Superjet and Embraer with the E-190 also display their ambition in this market segment. But the main threat is the future Chinese C919, whose first flight is announced for 2014. With a capacity of 170 to 190 seats, this future rival for the B737 and A320 will he also rely on the latest reactors and equipment. All American and European manufacturers already jostling to propose their service offerings.

Although very young, the Chinese aviation industry has indeed all strengths. In addition to its hundreds of thousands of engineers, it can rely on the colossal State financial means and a national market booming, likely to absorb some 2.800 had nine of here in 2026. None of its competitors has more cards in hand. Bombardier also well understood, which concluded a strategic partnership with industry China, offering its expertise and its international presence for the C919 in Exchange a financial boost for its Cseries. How strengthen the credibility of the Chinese project and increase the dilemma of Airbus and Boeing, attempted to launch a version remotorisée of their single-aisle, to not to abandon the benefit of the latest technological innovations to their competitors. With however, the risk of having to spend a lot of money for equipment will find obsolete in a few years, with the arrival of the true successors of the B737 and A320. The competition has not yet arrived that it already gives headaches to Airbus and Boeing.